Of the 7 million tokens launched on pump.fun, only 97,000 maintained over $1,000 in liquidity. The difference between the 1.4% that survive and the 98.6% that don't is readable on-chain before you buy.
Disclosure: This article contains affiliate links. If you sign up through them, MadeOnSol may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. This never affects our rankings, ratings, or reviews.
Of the 7 million tokens launched on pump.fun between January 2024 and March 2025, only approximately 97,000 maintained more than $1,000 in liquidity after launch. That is a 1.4% survival rate. The other 98.6% — over 6.9 million tokens — showed pump-and-dump characteristics: an initial surge followed by rapid collapse, usually within the first hour.
This is not a bug in pump.fun's design. It is the predictable output of a system where token creation costs nothing and most launches are engineered exits rather than genuine projects. The more useful question is not "why do most tokens fail?" but "what do the 1.4% that survive look like on-chain before they move?"
The data shows clear patterns. The failures and the survivors differ across four measurable dimensions that are visible before you buy: deployer history, buyer quality, holder concentration, and early volume composition.
Understanding why tokens die in the first hour starts with the mechanism of death. There are four common patterns:
The coordinated dump: The deployer, early buyers, and sometimes KOLs are coordinated. The deployer launches with a bundled buy to build initial momentum, socially amplifies the token, and sells into the retail buyers who enter after the call. Price spikes 400–800% in minutes, then collapses back below launch price within the hour. The bonding curve shows a clean pump-and-dump shape: rapid rise, sharp cliff.
The bot-dominated launch: Volume looks organic in aggregate but the early buyers are almost entirely bots — sniper bots that enter in the first block and MEV bots that extract value from every subsequent trade. There are no real holders. When the bots rotate out (usually within minutes), there is no demand to sustain the price. Token dies quietly without a dramatic dump. A related trick is outright manufactured volume — our explainer on how Solana volume bots fake activity and how to spot it covers how to tell wash volume from the real thing.
The abandoned launch: Developer deployed the token, made no effort to build community or liquidity, and simply waited to see if organic momentum appeared. It did not. Token sat at sub-$5K market cap with 20 holders for 48 hours and quietly expired. Occasionally one of these gets a second life when traders organize a community takeover and score the CTO before it pumps — a rare exception to the first-hour death rule.
The honeypot or freeze: Token contract has active freeze authority or a hidden mechanism that prevents selling. Early buyers discover they cannot exit. Token shows price appreciation on charts but is economically worthless for anyone who bought.
Each of these failure modes leaves a different on-chain fingerprint. None of them are invisible before you buy — they are readable at launch if you know what to check. Several of these patterns — especially the honeypot and freeze variants — overlap with outright scams, which we cover in our guide on .
Building a product on Solana data?
Skip the Geyser pipeline — embed KOL flow, deployer reputation, and the all-DEX firehose over REST, WebSocket, or webhooks. The Business tier (€400/mo) is the self-serve embed license at 500k calls/day — Enterprise adds white-label & redistribution.
Tools mentioned
Live health scores, average ratings, and direct links on MadeOnSol.
Build a deployer sniper bot
Access deployer alerts, bonding stats, and tier data via API. Free tier: 200 requests/day.
New customers try Pro free for 5 days — card, cancel anytime.
import { MadeOnSol } from "madeonsol";
const client = new MadeOnSol({ apiKey: "msk_your_key" });
// Elite deployer alerts with KOL buy enrichment
const { alerts } = await client.deployer.alerts({ limit: 5 });
// Top deployers by bonding rate
const { deployers } = await client.deployer.leaderboard({ tier: "elite" });Building a product on Solana data?
MadeOnSol isn't an RPC or another generic token API — it's Solana memecoin intelligence that's painful to build in-house, pulled from dual-region gRPC shred streams: sub-second from the on-chain event to your app.
Signals you'd otherwise build
KOL & smart-money flow from 1,000+ labeled wallets, deployer reputation, coordination clusters, linked-wallet entity resolution, and an all-DEX firehose.
Embed it in your product
The Business tier (€400/mo, self-serve) licenses you to display MadeOnSol data inside your own product — 500k calls/day, 10 WS + 5 firehose connections. Enterprise above adds white-label & redistribution rights and custom endpoints.
Evaluate first, commit later
Test everything on a free ULTRA key — no commitment. If it fits, we scope volume or white-label pricing.
Keep reading
Guides
A repeatable checklist for evaluating any new pump.fun launch before you buy. Five checks, under 60 seconds, that separate the 1.4% of tokens worth holding from the 98.6% that dump in the first hour.
Education
How MadeOnSol classifies pump.fun deployers into tiers, tracks bonding rates, and surfaces the 34 elite deployers whose tokens graduate at 71% — versus the 1-2% baseline.
Guides
Understand how pump.fun's revenue sharing model works after tokens graduate to PumpSwap. Bonding curve fees, PumpSwap swap fees, creator revenue splits, and realistic earning estimates for token deployers.
Analytics
As of mid-July 2026, NOXA was ~75% of Robinhood Chain deploys before dying and relaunching as Pons — now #1 at ~930 deploys/hr. flap.sh leads curve volume, Clanker feeds Uniswap v4, and hood.fun has just 8 lifetime graduations.
Analytics
As of mid-July 2026, only 23% of human alpha wallets on Robinhood Chain are mostly-memecoin — 66% mostly trade non-launchpad assets like stables, tokenized stocks and blue-chips. The chain built for stocks became a meme machine, but the money says otherwise.
Guides
Robinhood Chain has no public mempool, so early token discovery is a data race, not a gas war. Here's how to catch new RHC tokens on the bonding curve before they graduate into Uniswap.
Enjoyed this article?
Real-time KOL trades, Pump.fun deployer intel, and 1,200+ ranked Solana tools — free to explore.
Open the KOL TrackerAnalysis of the tokens that maintain liquidity and graduate to Raydium shows consistent patterns in the first 30 minutes:
Diverse early buyer base: Surviving tokens have their first 20–50 buyers distributed across wallets with different funding sources, ages, and trading histories. Failed tokens have their first 10–20 buyers concentrated among wallets created on the same day or funded from the same source — the hallmark of a bundled launch.
Human traders in the first-buyer list: The ratio of wallet addresses that show human trading patterns (variable trade sizes, diverse token history, consistent but not mechanically precise timing) versus bot patterns (uniform sizing, sub-second timing, high transaction failure rates) in a token's first 50 buyers is a strong predictor of whether the token will sustain. Research on Solana memecoin data shows tokens dominated by bot activity in their first 50 buyers have systematically lower graduation probability.
Deployer track record: The wallet that launched the token has a history. If that wallet has deployed 40 previous tokens that all dumped within 30 minutes, the current token is almost certainly the same. If the deployer has 3 previous tokens — two of which graduated and one that failed — the base rate is meaningfully different.
Graduated market cap trajectory: Tokens that graduate (reach ~$90K market cap) from pump.fun's bonding curve show consistent buy-pressure in their chart — multiple price discovery cycles, not a single spike. Failed tokens show one steep spike and immediate collapse. The shape of the bonding curve in the first 20 minutes distinguishes these before graduation.
The deployer wallet is the most predictive single variable. A deployer who has launched 60 tokens with a 2% graduation rate is a fundamentally different counterparty than a deployer with 8 prior launches and 5 graduates.
What to check:
A deployer wallet with 0 prior launches is not automatically bad — everyone has a first token. But a wallet with 50 prior launches and a 0% graduation rate is a documented serial dumper.
This check takes 2 minutes on Solscan. Filter the wallet's transaction history for token creation events, check how many prior tokens still have liquidity on DexScreener.
The first 20–50 buyers determine the holder base that will either sustain or collapse the token. High-quality early buyers look like:
Low-quality early buyers look like:
The buyer quality score aggregates these signals into a single metric per token. A token with an average buyer quality score of 0.3 (low) in its first 20 buyers is dominated by bots and coordinated wallets. A token scoring 0.7+ across its first 20 buyers has a human-dominated holder base with a meaningfully better survival profile.
Two additional signals to check before entering:
Top 10 holder concentration: On high-risk pump.fun tokens, the top 10 holders typically control 30–50% of supply, and the first 10–20 buyers hold 17–19 percentage points more supply than holders in lower-risk tokens. High concentration = a small group controls whether the price moves up or down. When they exit, the price collapses.
Bundling: Bundled launches involve a single operator controlling multiple wallets that buy simultaneously on token creation, often within the same Jito bundle. This gives the operator a large, cheap position before any retail buyer can enter. Bundle checker tools surface these within seconds of launch. A token that was bundled at launch almost never survives long — the bundler's entire profit model depends on dumping into incoming retail.
Before buying any new pump.fun token, these five checks take under 60 seconds:
Deployer history — search the deployer wallet on Solscan. How many prior token launches? What was their fate?
Bundle check — run the token through a bundle checker. Was the launch bundled? What percentage of supply did the bundler take?
First buyer list — look at the first 10–20 buyers on the token's DexScreener page. Are the wallets aged and diverse, or fresh and similar-sized?
Top holder concentration — what do the top 10 holders control? Above 40% is a red flag.
Bonding curve shape — is the chart showing organic accumulation (multiple price discovery cycles, consistent buy pressure) or a single spike (manufactured pump)?
If 3 of these 5 checks fail, the token is in the failure category. If all 5 pass, you have a token with the on-chain fingerprint of a survivor — not a guarantee, but a meaningfully better base rate. We turn this exact workflow into a repeatable scoring routine in how to score a new pump.fun token in 60 seconds.
Manual checking works for individual tokens. For traders watching dozens of new launches simultaneously, manual checks do not scale.
The MadeOnSol token API provides a pre-calculated buyer_quality_score for any token mint address — a 0–1 score based on automated analysis of the first 50 buyers across the dimensions above: wallet age, trading history, entry timing patterns, transaction failure rate, and single-token concentration. The score is available via REST and updates in real time as new buyers enter.
The /v1/tokens/{mint}/buyer-quality endpoint returns the score plus the underlying signals, so you can build your own filtering logic on top.
Combined with the deployer score (also available in the API) and our KOL first-touch data for the same token, you get a complete picture of whether a new pump.fun launch has the profile of a survivor or a rug before you commit capital.
Both endpoints are available on the free tier (no card required). API docs and pricing →
Roughly 1–2% of pump.fun tokens graduate to Raydium (reaching the ~$90K market cap threshold). The majority die on the bonding curve within the first hour.
No. Bundling — coordinating multiple wallets to buy simultaneously via Jito — is a transaction strategy, not a legal violation. It is widely considered manipulative by the community, and bundled launches have much higher failure rates for retail buyers, but it is not prohibited.
Scores above 0.6 indicate a majority of early buyers show human trading patterns. Scores below 0.3 indicate bot or coordinated wallet dominance. Most pump.fun launches score between 0.2 and 0.4 on launch.
Yes, significantly. A deployer with 30+ prior dumps has demonstrated a consistent pattern regardless of how the current token looks on surface metrics. Deployer history is one of the highest-weight signals.
Several free bundle checkers exist for Solana — search "Solana bundle checker" for current options. Our token API also includes a bundled supply flag. Bundle detection is immediate after launch.
Sometimes, but not reliably. If 5+ tracked KOL wallets with strong track records enter a token with a serial-dumper deployer, the KOLs may be acting on inside information that the deployer is genuine this time — or the KOLs themselves are coordinating the pump. Either way, the risk profile is elevated and position sizing should reflect that.
Yes — see our 60-second pump.fun scoring checklist for a condensed version of these checks, and finding pump.fun tokens before KOLs tweet for the entry-timing side of this.